Professional forecasting analytics

Think you read the game better than the crowd?
Prove it. Or find out you don’t.

Build a model from the stats you actually trust, test it against every NFL game since 1999, and track a record that locks before kickoff. Your read, the crowd’s read, and the gap between them.

KC @ BUF · Sun 14 SepDrag a weight
Your model68.4%
The crowd62.0%
Delta+6.4
EPA diff0.42
Rest0.14
Turnovers0.18

You enter the crowd’s number. DeltaBook shows the gap, and stops there.

1.2M
Plays modeled since 1999
27
Seasons to backtest
<30s
To run a full backtest
01 / Build

Describe your read. The AI builds the model.

No code, no spreadsheet. Tell DeltaBook you trust efficiency and rest over turnovers, in plain English, and it builds a model that puts a number on every game that week. Adjust any weight by hand whenever you want.

Model weightsv4
EPA DIFFERENTIAL0.42
REST DIFFERENTIAL0.14
TURNOVER MARGIN0.18
TRAVEL / TIME ZONE0.09
02 / Backtest

Test it against 27 years.

Backtest your theory over more than 1.2 million plays since 1999, in seconds. The number that matters is calibration: when it says 70 percent, does it hit 70 percent? That is how you tell a real read from a lucky run.

Calibration, v4n 1,214
50/6055.8341
60/7064.9356
70/8073.6298
80/9069.4154
90/10088.165
03 / Tune

Tune it. Beat your last version.

Change a weight, rerun 27 seasons in seconds, and see if v5 scores better than v4. Every version is scored and kept, so your best model is always one click away.

Your versionsBrier, lower is better
v10.2464
v20.2301-0.0163
v30.2205-0.0096
v40.2062-0.0143
04 / Prove

A record that locks before kickoff.

Arm your model and every prediction freezes before the game starts, then grades itself when the game ends. Build a public track record you can put in front of anyone.

DeltaBookFrozen record

Rest and travel matter more than the crowd thinks.

WeightedRest 0.22 / Travel 0.11
Over96 games, 2026
Brier0.2081
Locked before kickoff. Platform-graded.
Bring your own AI

Build straight from Claude or ChatGPT.

DeltaBook runs as an MCP server, so any MCP client - Claude, ChatGPT, or your own - can build models, run backtests, and read your results directly. Or use the copilot built in. Either way the math stays deterministic: the AI helps you build and understand your model, and never makes the prediction. The engine does that.

What’s next

NFL first. More to come.

The NFL is live first because the season is here. The NBA, soccer, and more run on the same tool, with the same backtesting and the same frozen record.

NFL - live firstNBA - nextSoccerMore

The only professional analytics tool you need to prove your read of the game.

For less than a coffee a day.